Jefferies reaffirmed its confidence within the firm. In its newest report, “Upsides From Enterprise undefined Elevate Ests & Stick with Purchase” (September 21, 2025), the brokerage raised estimates and maintained a “Purchase” ranking with a revised worth goal of Rs 1,420 — a 21 per cent upside from the present market worth.
Paytm’s service provider franchise stands sturdy with 45 million retailers, and its lending enterprise is performing effectively. Jefferies pointed to new alternatives in Postpaid-on-UPI and wealth administration merchandise.
The report quoted Paytm Founder and CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma on the India Discussion board as saying that “cost platforms have come a great distance & now delivering earnings.” It highlighted Paytm’s “sturdy service provider franchise at 45mn & lending enterprise continues to carry out effectively,” and pointed to “new alternatives in not too long ago launched postpaid-on-UPI & wealth.”
Jefferies praised the resilience of the corporate in managing regulatory challenges, noting that the patron base, which had peaked at 100 million, fell to under 70 million however “now recovered to ~75mn, regardless of decrease advertising spends.”
Based on the report, “restoration in funds and ramp-up in monetary providers aided revenues, and together with cost-cutting initiatives helped enhance earnings.”
The brokerage described Paytm as one in every of India’s main digital funds platforms, with “an energetic client base of 74mn and a service provider base of 45mn as of Jun-25.” It famous that the corporate’s service provider funds platform is “quickly turning into the most important in India with choices throughout on-line and offline channels”.
On progress levers, Jefferies underlined that “momentum in lending revenues can proceed” and that Paytm is “capitalising on shopper base for wealth mgmt merchandise (together with buying and selling, MFs, gold and margin financing the place it already has a e-book of Rs 3.5-4bn).”.
The report referred to as Paytm’s Postpaid on UPI providing a major upside, writing that “even when they ramp as much as 1/third of previous peak, it may present ~7 per cent upside to our FY27 EBITDA est.”
Jefferies additionally emphasised Paytm’s pioneering function in monetary inclusion, citing its mission “to convey half a billion Indians into the mainstream economic system by offering entry to monetary providers to individuals beforehand excluded from the formal banking system.” The brokerage additional highlighted that the corporate “embraces knowledge safety and privateness as the inspiration of enterprise operations.”
Wanting forward, Jefferies acknowledged: “We anticipate 24 per cent income CAGR over FY25-28E, led by wholesome progress in monetary providers (+33 per cent) and funds (+24 per cent). We anticipate contribution margins to stay secure at ~58 per cent throughout the interval. As working leverage flows by way of, we anticipate EBITDA margins to enhance to ~15 per cent by FY28.”
Summarising its stance, the brokerage wrote: “We anticipate EBITDA to rise from a lack of Rs 15bn in FY25 to revenue of Rs 5bn in FY26 & Rs 12bn in FY27. We elevate our FY27-28 ests by 9-14 per cent led by decrease opex and tad larger revenues. Upsides can come up from scale-up of postpaid and approvals for MDR on UPI & pockets. We stick with our BUY name, with a revised PT of Rs 1,420 primarily based on 45x Sep-27 EV/Adj. EBITDA”.
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